Guides
How sports predictions work, written from iPick Sport's own published record and from the research behind it: what a probability promises, how often the favourite wins, what moves a game, and how to judge any prediction, ours included.
Articles
How often does the favourite win? A league-by-league lookFrom about 57% in baseball to about 75% in college football: why the favourite's win rate depends on the sport, and what it means for a pick.Why a good pick still loses: probability, variance and streaksA 65% pick loses about one time in three. What each probability promises, and how much luck there is in 30, 100 or 400 games.What moves a game before it starts: pitchers, goalies, quarterbacks and restThe starting quarterback can move an NFL game by several points; the weather mostly moves totals. What matters, by how much, and what iPick takes into account.How to judge a sports prediction siteWin rate alone says little. Calibration, a fair comparison and enough games say a lot. A checklist for any site that publishes picks, iPick included.How iPick makes a pick — and why it often matches the favouriteA model per league, weighed every week against outside estimates of the same games. Why the pick usually agrees with the favourite, and what that says about the market.Track recordEvery pick published before its game, by strength and by league, kept up to date.
Reading iPick's numbers
How to read a predictionWhat the pick, its probability, its strength and the expected margin and total mean.How reliability is measuredThe six checks behind a prediction's reliability, and what that number changes.What each model knowsWhat each league's model reads, what it does not see yet, and how it is judged.