Track record
Every pick iPick Sport published before its game, once the game was final — the misses with the hits. A pick counts with the probability it carried when the game started, and is never changed afterwards. These numbers update by themselves as games finish.
Over this period, 698 picks published since 2026-07-26 won 65.9% of the time. On average they said they would win 65.2%.
By strength
The pick's own probability, in three levels. If the numbers can be taken at their word, each level should win about as often as it said.
| Group | Games | Won | It said | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong65% or more | 278 | 76.3% (212) | 78.4% | 0.500 | 0.166 |
| Lean55-65% | 237 | 63.3% (150) | 59.6% | 0.660 | 0.234 |
| Toss-upunder 55% | 183 | 53.5% (98) | 52.3% | 0.690 | 0.248 |
By league
| Group | Games | Won | It said | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 141 | 59.6% (84) | 57.2% | 0.669 | 0.238 |
| NBA | 28 | 67.9% (19) | 61.6% | 0.600 | 0.207 |
| CFB | 253 | 72.7% (184) | 74.7% | 0.517 | 0.177 |
| NFL | 76 | 61.8% (47) | 64.8% | 0.657 | 0.233 |
| NHL | 167 | 61.1% (102) | 57.8% | 0.654 | 0.231 |
| WNBA | 33 | 72.7% (24) | 67.3% | 0.627 | 0.203 |
| All picks | 698 | 65.9% (460) | 65.2% | 0.604 | 0.211 |
How this is counted
- Only picks made before the game; predictions computed afterwards for older games are left out.
- A game counts once it is final and did not end level; postponed and cancelled games do not count.
- "It said" is the average probability the picks gave themselves. Log-loss and Brier score every pick by the probability it gave to what happened: lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693 and 0.25.
- Short periods are mostly luck: a predictor that is right 65% of the time can show anything from 47% to 80% over 30 games.
To read these numbers: Why a good pick still loses · How to judge a sports prediction site